Vietnam Coffee Exports Reach Record Highs Amid a Global Supply Squeeze: 2026 Outlook

Multiple sources linked the 2025 record year to the global market environment. Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association leadership attributed export value reaching over US$8 billion in 2025 to a global price surge, with supply pressure tied to climate change and the El Niño phenomenon. InCorp Vietnam also described global supply shortages—citing droughts in Brazil and weather impacts in key regions—as tightening availability and lifting prices to multi-decade highs. Export prices averaged around US$5,642–5,700 per tonne in the period cited, and London Robusta futures peaked above US$5,800 early in the year. At the farm level, Dak Lak beans reached ₫119,000 per kg in early November 2025 (about US$4.52/kg), reinforcing how price strength flowed through the supply chain.

What the First Half Signals for 2026: Prices Cool, Strategy Shifts

By mid-2026, the tone turned more cautious. VietnamPlus reported that Vietnam exported 1.1 million tonnes in the first half of the year, valued at US$4.78 billion, with June alone at 150,000 tonnes worth US$552.6 million. Export volume rose 9.7% year-on-year, but export value fell 14.4%. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment said the average export price in January–June fell 22% year-on-year to around US$4,435 per tonne, suggesting the window of exceptionally elevated prices seen in 2024–2025 was gradually narrowing. Germany, Italy, and the US remained the three largest buyers by share at 14.1%, 7.9%, and 6.9%, but export value to these markets in the first five months declined by 21.7%, 9.6%, and 2.2% respectively, while China stood out with export value up 70.7%.

Industry commentary points to a more competitive phase ahead and a sharper focus on value. Vicofa said global supply is increasingly outpacing demand, with expansion “driven largely by Brazil,” while global consumption has grown only modestly in recent years. It also warned that larger supply could keep downward pressure on prices, particularly in Robusta—Vietnam’s main export product—and noted that meeting the year’s export revenue target would be difficult as second-half shipments are typically lower than the first half. This is where the Vietnam coffee export market 2026 narrative becomes less about chasing tonnage and more about defending margins through quality, traceability, and processing. Vicofa reported that about 30% of Vietnam’s coffee-growing area is certified under sustainable production standards, and it urged higher added value via more exports of certified high-quality beans and increased shipments of roasted, instant, and blended coffee products.

At the same time, market structure and investment continue to evolve in ways that can support exports even as prices normalize. Mordor Intelligence estimated the Vietnam coffee market size in 2026 at USD 550.11 million, up from USD 518.72 million in 2025, with a projection of USD 737.99 million by 2031 at a 6.05% CAGR for 2026–2031. The same report said Robusta captured an 81.35% share of Vietnam coffee market size in 2025, and it highlighted investment push into roasting, soluble, and ready-to-drink capacities. On the demand side, VietnamPlus noted domestic prices rebounded above 90,000 VND per kilogram after weeks of fluctuations, while trading stayed cautious due to limited inventories. Taken together, the data suggests Vietnam’s export leadership is increasingly tied to differentiation—certifications, processing, and market diversification—rather than relying solely on global price spikes.